[17]#1 impactful endeavor(Now)4family: IV^zbs^gym..

meaningful endeavor Now: algo^zbs^…

In the quiet hours, inevitably I would get my share of self-doubt about the value of my endeavors. See also what efforts go towards 20Y-career building

At other times, I would feel the impacts (of my effort today) on the people who depend on me — grandparents, kids, wife. There’s a lot I can do to make their lives safer, richer, easier, … For example, the interview-preparation effort looks short-term and less meaningful than zbs, but actually has more impact on family well-being such as education, health-care, housing and life-chances. Re zbs, now I realize zbs accumu is rather theoretical and actually limited. Interviews build my confidence and capacity to provide for them.

Looking at my peers … I feel their personal endeavors are not much better than mine:

• move up to leadership positions. I think that’s a good direction if you CAN move up. I gave up long ago. So I see myself almost like a specialist consultant for hire
• personal (property) investments
• kids grades and top schools

		accumu #not a benefit	#3 mental fitness, anti-aging	#2 career after 65 (RnD/teach)	#1 family well-being: impact 1-5		#4 lasting social value?
		good if low churn	good	minimal	4		minimal	IV: QQ/BP #incl. algo ideas
		good	excellent	none	4		none	IV: algo practice
		good	excellent	N.A.	5		none	…cf: yoga, jog
		good if low churn	good	possible	3 #helps PKI !! IV		minimal	zbs #+GTD, instrumentation
		churn	ask HuKun	too volatile	0		none	data science, machine learning
		some	some esp. quant	none	1 {– 2		none	portable dnlg(+quant)
		none	some	none	4 #if stay`long. Can help move-up but low correlation		none	xx local sys
		some	minimal	none	1 #questionable		can help kids; can’t teach	per investment analysis #unlike XR
		NA	minimal	none	2 {–1		none	… cf: family expense management
		some	some	possible	0		high	En/Ch learning
		churn	good	minimal	0 # coding practice		churn! Get Real no bandwidth!	contribute to OSS??

“spread%%nlg” as a column? trivial.

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market-depth^elite domains #jxee

I used to dismiss “commodity” skills like market data, risk system, JXEE… I used to prefer high-end specializations like algo-trading, quant-dev, derivative pricers. In reality, average salary is only slightly different and a commodity job can often outpay a specialist job.

As I get older, it makes sense to prefer market depth rather than “elite”(high-end niche) domains. A job market with depth (eg jxee, market-data, risk systems) offers a large number of positions. The typical salary of top 10% vs the median are not very different — small gaps. In contrast, the elite domains feature bigger gaps. As I grow older, I may need to reconsider the specialist vs generalist-manager choices.

Reminders about this preference (See also the spreadsheet):

1. stagnation in my orgradient
2. may or may not use my specialist skills in math, concurrency, algorithms, or SQL …
3. robust demand
4. low churn — a critical criteria whenever I mention “market depth”. I don’t like the market depth of javascript and web java.
5. salary probabilities(distro): mgr^NBA#marketDepth etc

–case study: Algo trading domain

The skillset overlap between HFT vs other algo systems (sell-side, OTC, RFQ, automated pricing/execution..) is questionable. So is “accumulation” across the boundary.  There seems to be a formidable “dragon gate” — 鲤鱼跳龙门.

Within c++ based HFT, accumulation is conceivable. Job pool is so small that I worry about market depth. My friend Shanyou agreed that most of the technical requirement is latency. C/C++ latency techniques are different from java.

However, HFT developers seldom need to optimize latency

Outside HFT, the level of sophistication and latency-sensitivity varies. Given the vague definition, there are many (mostly java) jobs related to algo trading i.e. better market depth. Demand is more robust. Less elitist.

[19] body-build`can hit low visPgress#leverage,disengaged

In Singapore (and very few NY) jobs, I noticed a pattern — the longer I stayed on a stable job, the lower I dropped in motivation, incentives and positive feedback/reinforcement for IV body-building including QQ, coding..

Every time I pass a non-trivial tech screening, I feel a real boost … Reinforcement of absorbency and reinforcement of a wellspring of energy lasting a few days to a few months … sometimes years thanks to my retrospective blogging. My Singapore experience is missing this crucial IV element. Without it, my absorbency of dry technical learning is hard to sustain. This also explains why my absorbency of localSys is hard to sustain.

(My son has never experienced such positive reinforcement.)

To gain perspective I find it necessary to compare with other endeavors. My conclusion — body-building has the highest leverage. See also meaningful endeavor(Now)4family: IV^zbs^gym..

Whenever I feel guilty/ashamed of my fixation on IV, and try to learn zbs, localSys, GTD etc,  eventually (often quickly) I hit a broken reinforcement loop and a weak or depleted “energy supply” and invariably give up, very rationally.

Q: is there any /endeavor/ with higher visPgress than IV body-building?

		chores that require absorbency	visPgress #immediate	$ROTI	leverage over long-term, on family well-being
		body-building	Yes in the form of blog+github… not $$ [1]	reasonably high, given huge $gain and huge t-investment 😦	higher leverage than everything else combined [2], despite the churn
		… cf localSys	highly visible	respect, not $$	->necessary but insufficient condition for move-up
		non-prop investment	easily visible but small	low given the small profit	no leverage so far
		yoga (+ fitness)	some but hard to keep	$zero	high leverage, well-known
		diet for BMI	highest but hard to keep	$zero	😦 low since it’s hard to keep up

[1] I think many of my peers can’t keep up the body-building effort precisely because there’s no $ROTI… personal projects: any ROI ] salary@@
[2] direct fruits of the endeavor:

• made my nice TPY home possible
• enabled me to move between countries
• made GC possible
• gave wife the SPR then Singapore citizenship
• gave me decent salary
• supported my property investments

coding drill: LASTING value4family10Y well-being ]U.S.

This blog post is poorly structured, but let’s not spend too much cleaning it up. Not worth it. Most of the content is repeated elsewhere.

Background: for many years until late 2017, I have focused on QQ, and neglected coding tests.

See the benefits of coding IV practice in 4 benefits of coding practice #beatFront

• If you bring your pure algo skill from 4/10 to 6/10, it will remain around that level, or slightly lower. It will help you with your high-end job interviews for 5-10 years.
• a lot of “algo skill” consist of key ideas behind the top 100 common coding questions. (I tried about 1/3 of them.) I feel it’s crucial to review the high-value problems to refresh 1 or 2 key ideas for each problem.
  • Note the various max-profit problems look similar but Key ideas are vastly different.
• If you rely on your work projects, you will remain around 3/10 😦 Your projects won’t train you for those coding challenges in terms of algo, BestPractice, ECT…
• Only a small part of the required syntax can be practiced but a lot more practice still needed 😦
• You may think the STL syntax will become familiar naturally, but in reality over a year our projects used no std::map no lower_bound() no sort() no getline() so most of the basic syntax were not developed!
• One builds the ECT skills (including syntax) with focused practice, outside the day job. No shortcut. Programmers without this “mileage” won’t have this skill. Just like driving or any athletic or artistic skills.

I’m reluctant to break down by “skill” but ..

1. quick-n-dirty syntax used for coding test — Yes we can remember most of it for 10Y, based on my experience with perl, java, php
2. ECT — easy to lose the speed. I feel some of the ECT improvement does remain.
3. pure algo ideas — already discussed above

Low “churn” — most coding questions have remained unchanged for 20 years.

I also realized that my c++ ECT/BP proficiency is different from my java ECT/BP proficiency.

In terms of health benefits, this is more beneficial than QQ study. More anti-aging benefits, like physical exercise.

##[18]realistic 2-10Y career planning guidelines

Background: not easy to have a solid plan that survives more than 3Y. Instead of a detailed plan, I will try to manage using a few guidelines.

• –top 5 guidelines:
• respect/appreciation/appraisal(esp. by manager) — Let’s accept: may not be easy to get
• Singapore — much fewer choices. Better consider market-depth^elite domain
• Expertise accu or sustained focus — holy grail
• family time — how2get more family time #a top3 priority4Sg job
• ——– secondary:
• trySomethingNew — may/not be justifiable
  • stagnation — could be the norm
  • engaging — keep yourself engaged, challenged, learning, despite the stagnation
• interviews — Let’s accept : extremely important to me but much harder in Singapore. Even in the U.S. I may need to cut down.
• distractions — Let’s accept
• Peer pressures — Let’s accept.
• Entry-barrier — could be too high for me in the popular domains like algo trading
• non-lead dev role — Let’s embrace. Don’t feel you must move out or move up. Hands-on coding is gr8 for me. Feel good about it
• Shrinking Choices — many employers implicitly prefer younger programmers
• Entry-barrier — could be too low for some young guys — the popular domains will have many young guys breaking in
• Churn — Avoid

long term planning can be demoralizing

My father often tells me I plan ahead too much…

Q: where will I be, what job will I have 5 years from now?

Such questions can be demoralizing and sometimes can dampen a precious spirit of optimism. I sometimes perform better by focusing on here and now.

I think the reality may be quite bland and uninspiring — same job, with declining income, not much “offensive” to mount …

5concerns@bigata(+quant)domains#10Y

1. fads — vaguely I feel these are fads.
2. salary — (Compare to financial IT) absolute profit created by data science is small but headcount is high ==> most practitioners are not well-paid. Only buy-side data science stands out
3. volatile — I see data science too volatile and churning, like javascript, GUI and c#.
4. shrink — I see traditional derivative-pricing domain shrinking.
5. entry barrier — quant domain requires huge investment but may not reward me financially
6. value — I am suspicious of the economic value they claim to create.

(IncInc)most effective 10Y direction to INCrease INCome

Reality! We better embrace reality, not ignore it.

• Quant? no. Get Real
• new skills like py, hadoop, data science? I see low chance of increasing my income, but I could be wrong
• some specialist role, perhaps
  • risk/pricing analytics? questionable premium
  • low-latency algo trading in c++/java? unlikely … Get Real
• hands-on architect (different from specialist role)
• (perhaps maintenance mode) app owner, and grow in a big company?
  • must be a high value application
• high-end contractor (probably@ibanks)? most practical
• coding practice? practical 🙂
• portable instrumentation zbs
• [p] portable GTD skills (eg instrumentation)
• [p] improve localSys learning process to speed up get-over-the-hump
• [m] algo practice
• socket QQ/GTD? not directly increasing my income but prevent income decline
• [m] low level QQ topics in ARM, linux, STL, concurrency
• [m=muscle building for iv]
• [p=can help me take on a high-paying lead dev role. If too tough, then we can still count on these items to help improve our stress profile; self-esteem; job security; bonus… ]

a profession with Enjoyment+income+barrier

Update — Enjoyment is often short-lived and affected by too many factors like

• respect by mgr #bonus
• “strategic” learning #Barclays
• commute
• income cf to peers

Instead of Enjoyment, I often prefer “engagement”.

However, for both enjoyment and engagement, the signal-to-noise ratio is below 0.2 i.e. those “noise factors” above are at least 5 times stronger.

——–

Background — discussion with an older fellow developer about helping our high-school kids select a major.

Example — Look at Aunt Gennifer. She changed her profession around age 40 to find a better paying and less boring job.

Example — grandpa has an ever-green interest in his research field, but most researchers in this field are not well-paid (it’s the least commercial field of research). In terms of income, I think grandpa’s medical and pension benefits are in the the top 1%.

Example — me. I entered trading-engine-dev circa 2007.

• It pays well above the average professional salary across all professions. (I was told U.S. family doctors earn about 150k only.)
• Market depth is excellent — look at my post on NBA salary.
• The constant pressure to upgrade and learn is perfectly acceptable to me. In fact, I seek opportunities to maintain my learning pace
• I don’t find it tiring or boring. For a few years before 2007, I told myself “I don’t want to remain a developer for life” but had a U-turn.

For most people, it’s hard to find a profession that’s not boring, not too tiring, and pays well, a field you could keep plowing till retirement, if you ever retire.

In fact, such a field is likely to be /oversubscribed/ — too many hopeful new entrants but few would get in and fewer would survive 😦

Example — Lianzhong’s daughter Borong loves writing, but she realized it wouldn’t be an easy way to make a living. Similarly, a large number of individuals have a meaningful and rewarding “hobby” but can’t make a decent income from it

• tweaking with computers and gadgets
• visual arts # including photography
• literary arts
• performing arts #including music
• sports, games #including board and electronic
• cooking

## meaningful endeavor(Now)for20Y career#dnlg;zbs;IV

Q: what efforts go towards 20Y-career building?
A: instrumentation in c++(java is a bit more churn); socket programming; STL internals; JVM internals; shell scripting; pthreads; FIX; linux internal?

This question is slightly vague, but it’s subtly different from

Q2: what efforts create social value over 20Y?
Q3: what efforts are cumulative over 20Y?

I feel the key question in this write-up is about building a deep and broad “foundation”, upon which we can start to plan (possible) social value, retirement planning, parenting/family building etc.

• 😦 teaching and research —- Somehow I tend to feel research creates long-term value but I suspect most research efforts are not valuable!
• 😦 open-source software —- I tend to feel OSS projects create social value, but most of them are not successful and have no lasting influence
• 😦 Deepening your domain knowledge such as (German’s) security lending —- It does increase your value-add to some employers and help you move up to management, but I don’t call it “foundation”.
  • MSFM and other formal training —- I feel this is less effective, more ivory-tower, but it does build a firm theoretical foundation.
• fitness and health .. more important than I feel (as shown by my action)
• zbs such as instrumentation skills? Yes zbs helps your KPI, and also indirectly helps you with interviews. It’s portable skill, unlike local system knowledge. Can the value last 20Y? Depends on the technology churn. c++ and java are safer.
• IV muscle building? My favorite career building effort. 20Y? 10Y yes.
• English/Chinese writing and vocab

[17] 5 thrusts/directions over next5-10Y]U.S.

1) buy 1st home as soon as financially feasible. Before that consider REITs.

2) shift more focus to academic parenting

3) start PhD if everything works out. Will pave the way to a research/teaching career till age 75

4) consider some Chinese-language-teaching business for wife

5) may need to change gear to a relaxed job, but maintain competitiveness on job market (I didn’t say “on the job”)

I feel my health and job market competitiveness (#5) are the foundation.

##criteria: domains2specialize over30Y #respect

See also post on top 5 expertise I could teach.

In the US job market, people often ask “What do you specialize in?”. I think most non-managers in this industry, esp. the successful ones, do specialize in something. Whether you like it or not, you are often perceived that way.

Clearly, many professionals are jack of many trades (or a jack of few trades), and don’t have any real expertise, depth or insight. Depending on your view, this may not be a problem for them.

Like property evaluation, I have a list of criteria:

1. theoretical complexity — so most peers can’t master it. I get lower stress. For example, Threading, statistics, pricing models, algorithms, data science? …
2. market depth (entry barrier) — eg: quant is too hard to get into and very few jobs in the mid-range or low-end
3. opportunities in research/teaching, for my later years. Relatively few choices.
4. aptitude — (aka personal advantage) easier to add value and receive appreciation and recognition.
5. Something I believe in or care about, such as personal investment, or health. Self-knowledge: If it has commercial value I will care about it.
6. ———– Rest are secondary —————-
7. pathway to self-employment
8. (obvious) accumulation and low churn — Look at grandpa
9. premium on job market — low priority in my later career
10. Something related to early childhood education

Some specific domains (See the spreadsheet for more details):

• concurrency in java/c++
• raw market data processing in c++
• risk mgmt + derivative valuation

%%#1sustainable value-add(#1reliable career path):hands-on dev

see also letter to German (post)

Hands-on development, analysis, design, debugging, maintenance, prod support … I get things done. My job interview performance is even better than project performance.

I can do this till age 65, even though my memory will decline.

This is a typical white-collar job, knowledge intensive, and pays “reasonably well” in SG or China but “very well” in US and Europe.

All other roles I am less confident about, including management, Business Analyst, quant research, DBA, data analytics.

Given this #1 thingy, my future belongs to the US.

In SG, at age 50 if I’m given a programming job along with some 20-somethings, I’m likely to be more competent than them, but as Miao and Xiao An pointed out hiring managers may not give me a chance. The Singapore government won’t help me find a high-paying programming job.

tag:skillist^domainBet^specialize^accu^churn^10yDirection

• Skillist — the leaf-level tech skills. This label is most relevant on old posts without label.
• 5y_domainBet — helps me choose which industry sector to invest my time and accumulate.
  • Not necessarily a list.
  • 5Y horizon
• specialize — I’m a specialist type of professional, not a generalist or manager. These posts help me position myself, not necessarily restricting to a particular domain.
• accu — less specific than “specialize”
• churn
• t_skillist and t_feature tags rarely but could be on one post