half%%peers could be Forced into retirement #Honglin

Reality — we are living longer and healthier.

Observation — compared to old men, old women tend to have more of a social life and more involvement with grandchildren.

I suspect that given a choice, half the white-collar guys in my age group actually wish to keep working past 65 (or 70), perhaps at a lower pace. In other words, they are likely to retire not by choice. My reasoning for the suspicion — Beside financial needs, many in this group do not have enough meaningful, “engaging” things to do. Many would suffer.

It takes long-term planning to stay employed past 65.

I think most of the guys in this category do not prepare well in advance and will find themselves unable to find a suitable job. (We won’t put it this way, but) They will be kinda forced into early retirement. The force could be health or in-demand skillset or …

low_churn low_stress domains

–high churn high expectation is worst but I have no first hand experience

  • devops – churn due to integration with automation tools
  • xp: Barcap?

–low churn high expectation

  • xp: Macq quant-dev domain
  • xp: PWM: SQL + Perl + java
  • xp: Qz

–high churn low expectation (low caliber)

  • xp: dotnet at OC
  • mediocre web shops

–low churn low expectation is ideal

  • xp: RTS socket + mkt data
  • xp: citi muni: bond math + coreJava
  • xp: mvea

 

##%% predictionS @prob(PIP)=unreliable

  • [o] RTS — I estimated 20->30-40% risk but actually zero
  • [o] OC — I felt I was doing nothing for months (20% risk) but they offered me a transfer
  • [o] citi — I wasn’t productive (30% risk) but they extended my contract for 6M
  • [u] Macq — I felt I was decent (2% risk), but expectation was way too high
  • [u] Stirt – I felt I was moving up (2% risk), but headcount pressure came as surprise
  • [u] barclays — I did superb job (0% risk) but head count pressure came as surprise
  • [u] 95G — I did superb job (0% risk) but head count pressure came as surprise
  • [o=overestimate of prob(PIP or layoff)]
  • [u=underestimate]

## strategic TSN among%%abandoned

Q: name the most strategic trySomethingNew domains that I have since abandoned, given up, quit. How about the new plan to take on coding drills as a lifelong hobby?

Don’t spend too much time, because the answers are nothing new even though this is a decent question.

  1. — ranked by surprise
  2. algo trading? actually very few roles spread across a number of firms
  3. c#
  4. drv pricing quant
  5. real time risk as in GS, Qz and Athena
  6. RDBMS tuning
  7. MOM, async, message-driven design knowhow
  8. distributed cache like Coherence and Gemfire
  9. Solaris sys admin and DBA
  10. perl, SQL, Unix/Linux power-user knowledge? No longer a top 10 focus

—-

  • python? Not yet abandoned
  • web dev for dotcom? I did this for years then abandoned it. Many of the tech skills are still relevant like sessions, java thread safety, long-running jobs

hands-on dev beats mgr @same pay

BA, project mgr, even mid-level managers in some companies can earn the same 160k salary of a typical “developer” role. For a manager in a finance IT, salary is often higher, but for a statistically meaningful comparison I will use a 160k benchmark. Note in finance IT or tech firms, 160k is not high but on main street many developer positions pay below 160k.

As stated in other blogposts, at the same salary, developers enjoy higher mobility, more choices, higher career security…

##[19] cited strengths@java

In this post we compare c++, python, javascript, c#

  • [G3] Scalability and performance [1] – James Governor has a saying: “When web companies grow up, they become Java shops”.Java is built for scalability in mind, which is why it is so popular among enterprises and scaling startups. Twitter moved from Ruby to Java for scaling purposes.
  • [G9] community support [1] such as stackoverflow —
  • [G9] portability [1] — on Linux and Android.
  • [G9] versatile — For web, batch jobs, and server-side. MS is a java shop, using java for trading. but DDAM is not a typical MS app. DDAM has many batch jobs but the UI is all in web java.
    • python and c++ are also versatile
  • [G5] Java has high correlation with fashionable technologies — hadoop; cloud; big data; microservices… Python and javascript are also in the league.
  • [G3] proven —
    • web apps are the biggest market segment. Some (js/php/ruby) of the top 10 most popular languages are used exclusive for web. Java is more proven than c#, python, c++.
    • enterprise apps (complex business logic + DB) are my primary focus. java is more proven than python, javascript, php, c#
  • [G3=a top-3 strength]

[1] https://stackify.com/popular-programming-languages-2018/ explains Java’s popularity

 

identityHashCode,minimum object size,relocation by JGC

https://srvaroa.github.io/jvm/java/openjdk/biased-locking/2017/01/30/hashCode.html offers a few “halo” knowledge pearls

  • every single java Object must always give an idHashcode on-demand, even if its host class has hashCode() method overridden to return a hard-coded 55.
    • hashcode() doesn’t overshadow idHashcode
  • The “contract” says an object’s idHashcode number must never [2] change, in the face of object relocations. So it’s not really computed based on address. Once someone requests the idHashCode number (like 4049040490), this number must be retained somewhere in object, as per the “contract”. It is retained in the 12-byte object header. (8-byte for a 32-bit JVM)
    • Therefore, the idHashcode contributes to the minimum size of java objects.
  • contrary to common belief, the idHashcode can clash between two objects, so idHashcode is a misnomer, more “hashcode” and not “identity”. https://bugs.java.com/bugdatabase/view_bug.do?bug_id=6321873 explains there are insufficient integer values given the maximum object count.
  • Note anyone can call the hashcode() method on this same object and it could be overridden to bypass the idHashcode.
  • [2] in contrast a custom hashcode() can change its value when object state changes.

## any unexpected success@tsn@@

## past vindicative specializations is more comprehensive, but in this blogpost I want to start on a clean slate and answer a new question. Remember it’s OK to not include a skill listed in the “vindicative” blogpost as I want to a fresh perspective here.

Q: I have explored far and wide… for new domains, new challenges, so are there any unexpected successes of try-something-new?

skill discovered proven over %%strength 1-5 val 4 GTD val4IV exceed’%%expectation
unix shell + unix admin 2000 Catcha 2Y 3 4 1
! perl 2000 Catcha 3Y 4 #many years ago 2 1
LAMP+js 2000 1Y 2 0 0
python #popularity any surprise? 1Y 2 #xp@Mac 1 3 growth/longevity
threading concept+java impl 2010 4Y 5 #theoretical 0 5 endurance]QQ IV
x-lang collections 2010 5Y 4 #lowLevel+theoretical 1 5 endurance]QQ IV
x-lang OO 2010 NA 4 #lowLevel 0 4 endurance]QQ IV
white board coding [1] 2011 2Y 2 @WallSt 0 3
! socket #and tools 2017 never 1 #lowLevel 3 if relevant 2
c++instrumentation/build tools 2015 2Y 2 @WallSt 3 1
! bond math 2010 Citi 1Y 2 1 if relevant 2
option math 2011 Barc 1Y 3 2 if relevant 1
fin jargon 2010 4Y #mvea 3 #know what’s relevant 2 2
finSys arch #abstract 2010 2Y 2 3 3

[1] Am more comfortable on whiteboard than other candidates.

Explanation marks means Surprise

%%algo trading dev xp !! HFT

Let’s not try to look like a HFT pro, citing your low-speed algo trading xp…. You could look desperate and clueless.

My list experiences don’t guarantee success, because devil is in the details (Just look at all the details in xtap retransmission…) However, I should feel more confident than an outsider.

  • [95G/Citi] OMS — In Citi, I worked on automatic quote cancellation and republish. Most executions involve partial fill and subsequent quote (limit order) reduction, similar to OMS. Citi and Baml were probably 2 biggest muni houses in the world. Baml system also handles corporate bonds.
  • [Citi] real time even-driven (tick-driven, curve driving…) quote repricing
  • [Citi] generating and updating limit orders in response to market data changes. Need to brush up on the basic principles since I was asked to elaborate, but a developer probably doesn’t need thorough understanding.
  • [95G] OMS — low-speed, low volume (bond) order management using very few FIX messages with trading venues to manage order state. I actually wrote my own wait/notify framework. This is probably the most valuable algo-trading project I have worked on.
  • [OCBC] simple automated option quote pricer in response to client RFQ
  • [95G] FIX messaging — up to 6-leg per order. Another ECN uses NewOrderSingle and Cancellation messages.
  • [RTS] FIX feeds — with heartbeat, logon etc
  • [NYSE] proprietary protocol is arguably harder than FIX
  • [NYSE] high volume, fault-tolerant raw market data draining at 370,000 messages/sec per thread
  • [NYSE] order book replication — based on incremental messages. I also implemented smaller order books from scratch, twice in coding interviews. This is directly relevant to algo trading
  • [NYSE] connection recovery, under very high messaging rate. Devil in the details.
  • SOR — no direct experience, but Citi AutoReo system has non-trivial logic for various conduits.
  • [Barclays] converting raw market data into soft market data such as curves and surfaces, essential to algo trading in bonds, FX-forwards, equity options.
  • [Stirt] real time ticking risk, useful to some traders if reliable
  • home-made FIX server/client
  • [Citi/Stirt] real time trade blotter — i added some new features
  • [Citi] very limited experience supporting an ETF algo trading system
  • [UChicago] school project — pair trading

However I feel these experiences are seen by hiring managers as insufficient. What are the gaps you see between my experience and the essential skills?

? limited OMS experience
? latency optimization
? network optimization

CV-competition: Sg 10x tougher than U.S.

Sg is much harder, so … I better focus my CV effort on the Sg/HK/China market.

OK U.S. job market is not easy, but statistically, my CV had a reasonable hit rate (like 20% at least) because

  • contract employers don’t worry about my job hopper image
  • contract employers have quick decision making
  • some full time hiring managers are rather quick
  • age…
  • Finally, the number of jobs is so much more than Sg

 

[17]orgro^unconnecteDiversify: tech xx ROTI

Update — Is the xx fortified with job IV success? Yes to some extent.

Background – my learning capacity is NOT unlimited. In terms of QQ and ZZ (see post on tough topics with low leverage), many technical subjects require substantial amount of /laser energy/, not a few weeks of cram — remember FIX, tibrv and focus+engagement2dive into a tech topic#Ashish. With limited resources, we have to economize and plan long term with vision, instead of shooting in all directions.

Actually, at the time, c#+java was a common combination, and FIX, tibrv … were all considered orgro to some extent.

Example – my time spent on XAML now looks not organic growth, so the effort is likely wasted. So is Swing…

Similarly, I always keep a distance from the new web stuff — spring, javascript, mobile apps, cloud, big data …

However, on the other extreme, staying in my familiar zone of java/SQL/perl/Linux is not strategic. I feel stagnant and left behind by those who branch out (see https://bintanvictor.wordpress.com/2017/02/22/skill-deependiversifystack-up/). More seriously, I feel my GTD capabilities are possibly reducing as I age, so I feel a need to find new “cheese station”.

My Initial learning curves were steeper and exciting — cpp, c#, SQL.

Since 2008, this has felt like a fundamental balancing act in my career.

Unlike most of my peers, I enjoy (rather than hate) learning new things. My learning capacity is 7/10 or 8/10 but I don’t enjoy staying in one area too long.

How about data science? I feel it’s kind of organic based on my pricing knowledge and math training. Also it could become a research/teaching career.

I have a habit of “touch and go”. Perhaps more appropriately, “touch, deep dive and go”. I deep dived on 10 to 20 topic and decided to move on: (ranked by significance)

  • sockets
  • linux kernel
  • classic algorithms for IV #2D/recur
  • py/perl
  • bond math, forex
  • black Scholes and option dnlg
  • pthreads
  • VisualStudio
  • FIX
  • c#, WCF
  • Excel, VBA
  • xaml
  • swing
  • in-mem DB #gemfire
  • ION
  • functional programming
  • java threading and java core language
  • SQL joins and tuning, stored proc

Following such a habit I could spread out too thin.

[17]#1 impactful endeavor4family: IV^localSys^gym..

See also [20]what protects family livelihood: IV skill^GTD #Ashish

This blogpost is about meaningful endeavor Now: algo^zbs^…

Background — In the quiet hours, inevitably I would get my share of self-doubt about the value of my endeavors. See also what efforts go towards 20Y-career building

At other times, I would feel the impacts (of my effort today) on the people who depend on me — grandparents, kids, wife. There’s a lot I can do to make their lives safer, richer, easier, … For example, the interview-preparation effort looks short-term and less meaningful than zbs, but actually has more impact on family well-being such as education, health-care, housing and life-chances. Re zbs, now I realize zbs accumu is rather theoretical and actually limited. Interviews build my confidence and capacity to provide for them.

Looking at my peers … I feel their personal endeavors are NOT much better than mine:

  • move up to leadership positions. I think that’s a good direction if you CAN move up. I gave up long ago. So I see myself almost like a specialist consultant for hire
  • personal (property) investments
  • kids grades and top schools
accumu #not a benefit #3 mental fitness, anti-aging #2 career after 65 (RnD/teach) #1 family well-being: impact 1-5 #4 lasting social value?
good if low churn good minimal 4 minimal IV: QQ/BP #incl. algo ideas
good excellent none 4 none IV: algo practice
good excellent N.A. 5 none …cf: yoga, jog
good if low churn good possible 3 #helps PKI !! IV minimal zbs #+GTD, instrumentation
churn ask HuKun too volatile 0 none data science, machine learning
some some esp. quant none 1 {– 2 none portable dnlg(+quant)
none some none 4 #if stay`long. Can help move-up but low correlation none xx local sys
some minimal none 1 #questionable can help kids;
can’t teach
per investment analysis #unlike XR
NA minimal none 2 {–1 none … cf: family expense management
some some possible 0 some En/Ch learning
churn good minimal 0 # coding practice churn! Get Real no bandwidth! contribute to OSS??

“spread%%nlg” as a column? trivial.

prepare]advance for RnD career

Grandpa became too old to work full time. Similarly, at age 75 I may not be able to work 8 hours a day. Some job functions are more suitable for that age…

I guess there’s a spectrum of “insight accumulation” — from app developer to tuning, to data science/analysis to academic research and teaching. The older I get (consider age 70), the more I should consider a move towards the research end of the spectrum…

My master’s degree from a reputable university is a distinct advantage. Without it, this career choice would be less viable. (Perhaps more importantly) It also helps that my degree is in a “hard” subject. A PhD may not give me more choices.

For virtually all of these domains, U.S. has advantages over Singapore. Less “difficult/unlikely” in U.S.

In theory I could choose an in-demand research domain within comp science, math, investment and asset pricing … a topic I believe in, but in reality entry barrier could be too high, and market depth poor

Perhaps my MSFM and c++ investment don’t bear fruit for many years, but become instrumental when I execute a bold career switch.

 

## retirement disposable time usage

See also my framework: Chore^Pleasure activities

  • exercise in the park everyday .. like grandma
  • reflective blogging — likely to be a big time-killer
  • reading as a pastime? GP said at his age, he still loves reading and has many good books at home, but has insufficient physical energy
  • sight-seeing, burning your cash reserve? Grandpa said he is physically unable to
  • — now the more productive endeavors:
  • volunteering for a worthy cause?
  • helping out as grandparents
  • ! … semi-retirement is clearly superior as I would have a real occupation with a commitment and a fixed work schedule

Grandpa pointed out that there are Actually-bigger factors than finding things to do

  1. cash flow
  2. health